Intriguing Real Estate Trends: 2050 Estimate Now Available

The good news is: By 2050, Westport will have plenty of new waterfront property.

The bad news: Current waterfront property will be worthless. It will sit underwater.

Want to check out if you’re a winner or loser? Head to Climate Central. They’ve spent 2 years developing interactive maps for coastal states. You can see — if you dare — estimates of areas vulnerable to flooding from combined sea level rise, storm surge and tides, or to permanent submergence by long-term sea level rise.

The site also offers reams of statistics. But the maps are the money shots.

2050 Westport coastal map

This is a very pretty map. Until you realize that blue represents water. Nearly everything south of the Post Road could be submerged. And look how far over its banks the Saugatuck River flows. Hover over or click to enlarge.

The above map is based on a 2-degree Celsius average rise in temperature.

Virtually everything south of 95 is gone. So is all of downtown, as the Saugatuck River surges over its banks.

Alert “06880” reader Glenn Payne — who we can thank (or blame) for sending the link along — notes:

While the attached is somewhat alarmist (it shows all land within 20 feet of high tide underwater), and the timing is likely beyond most readers, it does paint a very different picture of Westport sometime in the future. While some may be relieved that their house has not been submerged, their commute will be challenged, as I-95 will be.

He poses some interesting questions:

  • What is Westport without a beach and downtown?
  • Who pays the bills if the biggest taxpayers (Nyala Farms, Beachside homes) are not there?
  • And who lives in the rest of Westport if much of Manhattan (and the financial district) is gone?

So don’t sweat the details of the new downtown plan. Who cares if there’s a new traffic pattern at the beach. Neither will be around forever.

But until then, be careful where you park. “06880” will move to higher ground. We’ll still be watching.

Welcome to Westport!

Welcome to Westport!

(To see the interactive Westport map, click here. For Climate Central’s “Surging Seas” page, click here.) 

20 responses to “Intriguing Real Estate Trends: 2050 Estimate Now Available

  1. Jack Whittle

    Actually, this is what Al Gore predicted would happen by about . . . . 2014. A full 20 feet by 2100. Made for sensational news then too.

    • A. David Wunsch

      Man made climate change is real– it is not some hoax being perpetrated by Al Gore and a bunch of moonbat liberals. Why will none of the Republican presidential candidates acknowledge this reality ?
      ADW Staples 1956

      • Climate changes is real, but the MMGW hypothesis is not supported by any cause and effect relationship established empirically. Moreover, there is absolutely no evidence that humans can change either the direction of climate change or the amount.

        Maybe the new downtown plan should include a sea wall.

        Given the accuracy of what passes for climate models, the difference between a forecast of +2 degrees and 0 in 200 years is not statistically significant.

        If you want to get worked up, you could worry about Iran getting nuclear weapons.

  2. Jerry MacDaid

    Nice scare headline. But not even the climatecentral.org boys are claiming inundation by 2050. What is shown is estimate of what might eventually happen from 2 degrees Celsius rise in temperature. From the Westport link.

    “The areas colored blue are the areas below 6 meters — areas that would eventually be permanently underwater. When could the sea fully reach this height? Perhaps sooner than 200 years from now (see Table 1 in this scientific paper), or perhaps much longer (for example, see this paper). It is easier to estimate how much ice will eventually melt from a certain amount of warming, than how quickly it will melt, which involves more unknowns.”

    Sorry embedded links don’t carry over.

    In any event, assuming there is a CO2 connection (we better hope the Chinese and developing countries care since they are the primary drivers of CO2 growth these days. However, like with the plastic bag ban, maybe Westport can set an example and get the ball rolling with maybe a ban on SUVs or, better yet, vehicles of any kind.

    • Nancy W Hunter

      Actually, China and the U.S. are the culprits, followed by India and Russia.

      • Jerry MacDaid

        U.S. may be a “culprit” in term of absolute contribution but that is stable to declining. Real issue is growth of emissions which is where China/developing world comes into play.

        I apologize that I can’t find the link any longer but a Canadian study 15 years or so ago concluded that Canada (who is pretty good at cost/benefit analyses), as well as most western nations, would be better off building scrubbers/paying for pollution control devices in China/developing countries rather than spending the same amount to get marginal improvements in Canada (or western countries in general) given the relative cleanliness/efficiency of western power generation. I’m guessing that applies to CO2 as well. In other words, throwing $100B elsewhere would produce bigger bang for the buck than spending the same amount here.

        On the other hand, the US is pretty high on the list on a per capita basis (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions_per_capita) though note the trend for the U.S. Vs China for example. This trend is likely to continue as emissions growth tends to be correlated with standard of living (and inversely to density of population) so as other countries appropriately strive to improve the lot of their populations, emissions will grow.

        So what can we do if we were worried? Not much little old Westport can do though, as suggested, we can set an example. Let’s go beyond just banning cars, let’s outlaw air conditioning which is much more clearly a death spiral – it is hot, we turn on AC, that requires more electricity, as a practical matter that requires burning more fossil fuels (the wind doesn’t suddenly blow harder or sun shine more brightly when we need more power), that creates more greenhouse gasses, that makes it hotter and on and on in a never ending cycle.

        Your little part of Canada can help too. Join with me…turn off that AC.

        • Nancy W Hunter

          Quit the coal, and you’ll have a better ranking.
          As for AC, no one in the Rainforest has need for it.

  3. Ernest Lorimer

    Their poison ivy story got my attention!

  4. ….and then there were no more dinosaurs! Good to know that the Gorham Avenue Historic District will remain unscathed!

  5. Sharon Paulsen

    Just read the poison ivy piece. Grrrreat.

    Check out the Salmonella article too – fun!

    More to worry about, right? Ugh.

    Was that second pic from Hurricane Sandy aftermath?

  6. Excellent, the Violet Lane Historic District will be direct waterfront. I just knew our ship would eventually come in. I never guessed it would be able to dock. Thanks for sharing!

    • Jerry MacDaid

      Well, there will be winners and losers if this does happen. Congrats on being one of the winners!

  7. Sharon Paulsen

    Hahaha – funny one Morley!

    Side note: It would be interesting to see more pics of Westport flooding from hurricane Sandy.

  8. There used to be seas covering Western NY state and northeastern Pennsylvania evidenced by shell fossils you can easily find there. Most of our American plains was probably an ocean. The petrified forest was once a lush area now a desert. But no one was measuring sea levels then. But in case waterfront people are buying into it and you want to sell waterfront, I’ve got buyers.

    “I’m never too busy for your referrals”Mary Gai, Sales ExecutiveBerkshire Hathaway Home Services 203-985-2169

  9. Stephanie Bass

    …have to find a new nail salon; how much trama can one woman take in a week? Also, if Elvira goes, I’m out of here…

  10. Nancy W Hunter

    Wildfires, glacial melting, shady nail salons, bankrupt restaurants, nuclear deals, another theatre shooting…
    At least tomorrow’s GOP debate should bring smiles!

    • Sharon Paulsen

      LOL – cute Nancy!

      Actually, plenty of humorous comments in this thread today!

      Thursday’s Trump-bates (ahem, I mean Thursday’s Republican debates) should be very entertaining (ahem, I mean … educational! Yeah, that’s what I meant).

      (snarking here).

      • Nancy W Hunter

        Sharon, I cannot possibly live without my Daily Dose of Donald!

        Also, I love the idea that his poll numbers are so high is because the pollsters are polling democrats!

        Anyway, as Diefenbaker once said: “Polls are for dogs.”

  11. So maybe we rethink the idea of moving to the beach area?